Stooge!!!

I suspect that no one with any sense is holding their breath waiting for the heavily redacted, entirely uninformative version of the Mueller report that will likely be released to the public.  Here are a couple of ideas that might relieve the ennui while we wait.

First, don’t expect the Mueller report to show any direct link between Trump and the Russian interference in the election.  Even if there was massive collusion, Trump is almost certainly going to have “plausible deniability.”  This is what Nixon lost when the tapes became public, what Reagan lost when the Iran-Contra scam finally unraveled, and what Clinton lost when the stained dress surfaced.  Trump may lose it too, but I wouldn’t count on the Mueller report accomplishing this all by itself.  Trump has been a successful con artist all his life.  If he was directly involved in collusion with the Russians, we can be reasonably sure that others will suffer the consequences, just as others have suffered the financial consequences of his various scams.

Second, and more important, we don’t need the Mueller report to know that Trump is a stooge for Vladimir Putin.  His public actions confirm that beyond any reasonable doubt, even if it is unclear exactly why he is such a bootlicker.  When Putin invaded Ukraine, Trump resisted international efforts to impose sanctions.  In the face of Putin’s publicly acknowledged desire to reestablish the Soviet empire, Trump has moved to destabilize NATO which, for all its faults, is a significant obstacle to Putin’s aspirations.  And Trump unilaterally suspended a nuclear arms control treaty with Russia, allowing Putin to deploy openly missiles that threaten Europe.

And it’s not enough for Trump simply to advance Putin’s agenda.  He has been quite vocal about his willingness to believe Putin over US intelligence agencies and the governments of our (former) allies.  Putin assured Trump that he had nothing to do with murdering his critics in other countries.  Putin insisted that he had nothing to do with interference in the US elections.  And Putin’s word—the word of a KGB thug who makes no secret of his efforts to destabilize the world order—is good enough for Trump.  So much for putting America first.

And just in case all this left anyone in doubt about where his loyalties lie, Trump took advantage of a globally televised press conference to plant a big smooch on Putin’s ass.  We can speculate about why Trump is so determined to be a stooge for Putin, but the more pressing concern is why the GOP and the Trumpettes seem so utterly untroubled by this.  If Mueller actually has the goods on Trump, it will be entertaining to watch his supporters try to defend him.  Entertaining, but frightening as well.  When the President’s party and his supporters simply do not care that he is obviously the instrument of a foreign power, and one that is clearly hostile to US interests, the future begins to look a bit dark.

Collusion, Conspiracy, or Just a Clusterfuck

So…Trump has had his little private chit-chat with Putin.  And there has been the requisite press conference, with a truly impressive demonstration of boot-licking by Trump.  Our relationship with Russia is bad because “the United States has been foolish.”  Putin didn’t seem to be aware of the indictments against 12 Russian spies, and Trump is satisfied with Putin’s denial that Russia interfered in the 2016 election.  One could almost smell the bullshit through the computer screen.  

     Surely, now, the question of collusion must be broadened from its specific focus on the 2016 election to encompass the entirety of Trump’s foreign policy.  Indeed, such factors as the numerous back-channel interactions between Russia and the Trump campaign, or Trump’s insistence on a completely private meeting with Putin raise the possibility of criminal conspiracy.  But to what end?  Why did Russia put so much effort into getting Trump elected, and what does Putin want from him now?

     This really isn’t terribly difficult to discern.  Putin has made no secret of his desire to rebuild the Soviet empire.  (For a more scholarly treatment of this matter, read this.)  Western Europe knows this, as evidenced by reactions to Trump’s efforts to undermine NATO.  And the Baltic states know this; there is growing concern—see here, here, here, and here—that Putin will invade one or more of these states in the not too distant future.  Could Trump really be so stupid that he doesn’t know this?  Could he really be so stupid that he doesn’t realize what great service he has been doing for Putin of late?  The main obstacle to Putin’s aspirations is the Western alliance that is formalized in such institutions as NATO and the G-7.  Trump’s actions in the last few weeks have seriously destabilized both of these institutions, just as his tantrums at home have seriously destabilized important components of US government.  

     Collusion?  Trump is certainly doing all that he can to appease Putin and to smooth the way for rebuilding the empire.  While this alone may not be “collusion” in any legally significant sense, it is certainly questionable behavior for the US President.

     Conspiracy?  Who knows.  Mueller may uncover illicit connections between Trump and the Russians—illegal campaign activities or some sort of hold that Putin has over Trump—or he may not.  I won’t be much surprised either way.  I’m sure that Trump is as much of a perv as any other rich woman hater,  and all of our intelligence agencies (along with those of other countries) have documented Russian interference in elections.  

     In any case, I think the real answer is that it is just a clusterfuck.  Trump wants desperately to be one of the tyrants who can silence dissent and rule by fiat.  His disdain for the leaders of democracies and his slobbering and fawning over the tyrants of the world are his plea for admission to the club.  There is really no need to imagine conspiracies or blackmail.  Trump is acting the way he is because that is who he wants to be.

     Interestingly, Trump has put himself between a rock and a hard place.  It is likely that his appeasement of Russia won’t play very well with some of his base.  And it isn’t likely to play well with the leadership of the GOP, either.  He has tried to forestall a backlash by blaming Obama for Russia’s annexation of Crimea and by suggesting that Russia will behave differently now that he is at the helm.  

     As I write this, the press is full of Trump’s performance at the press conference with Putin.  Trump has some defenders in the conservative press, but even on the right there is considerable disgust.  I have been a serious observer of US politics since the Nixon campaign in 1960.  I have seen Presidents dishonor themselves in all manner of ways.  I have seen Congress lapse into dysfunction.  I have seen the people at each others’ throats over issues like abortion and the Vietnam War.  But the Trump presidency is really the biggest shitshow I have ever seen.

The Lone Deranger

So, we are finally seeing the real consequences of putting a bush league New York real estate huckster in charge of the country.  Trump is so far out of his depth that he doesn’t even perceive how feckless his childish tantrums are.  He fancies himself a history maker, but makes a joke of himself (and the US with him) all over the world.

     Trump’s performance at the G-7 was nothing new.  His response to any situation in which he is not getting his way is to throw a tantrum—insults, threats, proclamations of his own greatness.  I’m sure this sort of behavior is quite effective against some greed-driven mark.  But the world leaders that Trump now confronts are quite accustomed to making decisions of moral and political consequence, and to being held accountable for their decisions.  Acting like an asshole is not likely to be a very effective negotiating technique in the world of global politics.  Trump has done his very best to alienate our best and most valuable allies; don’t be surprised if the G-7 becomes the G-6.

     And, of course, Trump never wants to miss an opportunity to lick Putin’s boots.  Our intelligence agencies all report that Russia interfered in the 2016 election, but Trump insists that he believes Putin’s denial and resists any call to investigate.  Putin annexes Crimea, and Trump blames Obama.  Putin wants to disrupt the G-7, so he dispatches Trump to throw a hissy fit.  Trump is a crude weapon for achieving any sort of subtle political goals, but Putin does seem to wield him with some success.

     And soon, we will get to watch Trump go head to head with Kim Jong-un.  Trump has said that he doesn’t plan to prepare for the meeting with Kim; it’s all about his “touch” and his “feel.”  So I am guessing that he really doesn’t know that the Kim regime has run this same con on every US President since Carter.  First, they ramp up the level of belligerence—nuke tests, or missile tests, or attacks on South Korea.  Then they back off and indicate a willingness to negotiate.  As a sign of good faith, they release a couple of Western political prisoners—they always keep a few on hand for just such occasions.  They agree to all sorts of things, get what they can in the way of aid, and then renege on their commitments.  

     Trump and Kim are two of a kind.  Trump is desperate to be taken seriously as a world leader.  Kim is desperate to be recognized as the leader of a nuclear power.  It will be interesting to watch them play each other, especially after Trump’s display of weakness at the G-7.  My money is on Kim.

     There has always been a segment of the US population who believe that we can stand alone in the world, without allies and without any inclination to cooperate with anyone else.  I think this is manifestly ridiculous.  And it looks like the Trump administration is going to provide an empirical demonstration of just how ridiculous.

A Rock and a Hard Place

It looks like Trump has already gotten himself between a rock and a hard place—several hard places, actually—before he has even taken office.  All the bloviating and tweeting without any thinking has brought him up against several very hard political realities.

     The hardest for a CEO like Trump is that the President simply is not the only powerful player in the US political system.  The President cannot simply make his wishes known and expect them to be fulfilled.  Congress still wields the budget and the power to legislate, if it can find the spine to act.  Powerful members of Congress have made it clear that Trump’s “reset” with Russia is very problematic.  Senators like John McCain and Lindsey Graham are by no means as powerful as the President, but they are quite powerful enough to frustrate the President’s agenda.  And perhaps Putin’s, too

     And the emerging consensus that Russia interfered in the election in inappropriate ways to support Trump seems likely to increase resistance to any efforts Trump makes to align the US with Russian interests.  Putin is playing this very close to the chest, saying that he will wait until Trump is in office before deciding what to do about Obama’s sanctions.  But Trump may well find his hands tied.  This can’t be making Putin very happy.

     And then there is the problem of Israel and, more generally, peace in the Middle East.  This has been a millstone around the neck of every President since Carter decided it was America’s business to secure peace between Israel and its neighbors.  And the matter has only grown more complicated, exploding into all manner of sectarian conflicts.  In one respect, this is an easy call for politicians in the US.  It is political suicide in the US to take any sort of strong stand against Israel, or even to take a positive stand that isn’t quite strong enough.  It would seem that Obama made this an easy win for Trump by allowing the UN Security Council to pass a resolution critical of Israeli settlement practices.  This gave Trump the opportunity to play buddy-buddy with Netanyahu and declare his support for Israel.

     But this really can’t be making Putin happy.  Russia’s relationship with Israel under Putin is complicated.  Putin wants to be the big dog in the Middle East; this requires some kind of functional relationship with Israel.  But the last thing Putin wants is a stronger relationship between Israel and the US; this simply increases the US influence in the region.

    And we mustn’t forget Iran.  Under Putin, Russia has cultivated a substantial economic and military relationship with Iran.  But anti-Iran sentiment is widespread among Trump’s appointments and advisors; “regime change,” the modern euphemism for wars of aggression, seems to be increasingly popular.

     And what of China, the third largest market for US goods?  No doubt Putin is happy to see US-China relations deteriorate.  But a trade war with China hardly benefits American workers.

     I wonder if Putin or Trump’s other supporters are suffering buyer’s remorse yet.  And I wonder if the internal contradictions that are already emerging in the Trump administration will produce just more of the gridlock that has been the reality of US government for the past eight years.  Given the way Trump’s agenda appears to be developing, gridlock may be our only hope.

Is Donald Trump A Quisling?

Trump is taking his own sweet time in putting together the keystone kabinet, but it is already shaping up to be a gang of incompetents, corporate stooges, and war mongers to warm the heart of any Republican.  And there are even a few woman-beaters and Putin groupies in the mix.  (And there are a lot of homohysterics—more on that in another post.)  But all is not well in Trumpland.

     The GOP is already gearing up for an internal battle over Trump’s connections with Putin, Russian interference in the election, and the appointment of people who seem entirely too favorable to Russian interests.  John McCain is way out front on this, but other Republicans are gradually stiffening up their spines to raise questions.  I think this will make Congress rather less tractable than Trump imagines.  Indeed, it may do more than that; it may bring about the end of the GOP as we know it.

     Several years ago, George Will argued in a column that the GOP had to continue its opposition to abortion because that is all it really stood for anymore.  These days, I would argue that the Republican Party stands for many things—racism, woman-hating, homohysteria, anti-science goofery, war, and, the glue that holds it all together, corporate stoogery.  (Will, to his credit, has left the GOP.)  Be that as it may, I think it is safe to say that one theme, at least, has been consistent in the GOP for several decades—staunch opposition to authoritarian communism.  

     Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, for all that one was a crook and the other a confused old man who didn’t know what was going on, were adamant in their opposition to the USSR and the authoritarian regimes it spawned.  Nixon’s consistent anti-communism made it politically possible for him to initiate a change in our relations with China, and now China is the third largest market for US exports.  Reagan is popular in part because he is viewed as bringing the conflict between capitalism and communism to a successful conclusion.  

     But what of the rest of us?  If there really has been a significant Russian effort to influence the election by propaganda, computer intrusions, and other covert means, this surely offsets the pleasure of watching the GOP get what they’ve got coming.  This sort of meddling, even if it was unsuccessful, would constitute an attack on the country just as serious as a missile attack or a naval incursion into US territory.  An unsuccessful attack is still an attack, and the attacker is still our enemy.  As John Locke wisely said, nations can be in a state of war with one another even when they are not actively shooting.

     But suppose that the investigation initiated by President Obama, or the one that Congress is likely to launch soon, uncovers evidence that Trump was (is) complicit in this meddling.  (As I read the situation, this is not merely an idle supposition.)  And what of McConnell’s insistence on suppressing this intelligence?  Is this treason?  High crimes and misdemeanors?  

     The real danger here is in the damage that this is doing to our political culture.  Many Americans (many, many) are primed simply not to recognize the legitimacy of the incoming administration.  This is not simply frustration at losing an election to what they see as an inferior candidate; it is deep conviction that Trump is profoundly unfit to lead and that he did not win the election lawfully.  And every day, Trump speaks and acts to deepen this conviction.

     And now, it seems, some parts of our government—intelligence agencies, some members of Congress—are coming to share this conviction.   Perhaps the winds of constitutional crisis are gathering.