Collusion, Conspiracy, or Just a Clusterfuck

So…Trump has had his little private chit-chat with Putin.  And there has been the requisite press conference, with a truly impressive demonstration of boot-licking by Trump.  Our relationship with Russia is bad because “the United States has been foolish.”  Putin didn’t seem to be aware of the indictments against 12 Russian spies, and Trump is satisfied with Putin’s denial that Russia interfered in the 2016 election.  One could almost smell the bullshit through the computer screen.  

     Surely, now, the question of collusion must be broadened from its specific focus on the 2016 election to encompass the entirety of Trump’s foreign policy.  Indeed, such factors as the numerous back-channel interactions between Russia and the Trump campaign, or Trump’s insistence on a completely private meeting with Putin raise the possibility of criminal conspiracy.  But to what end?  Why did Russia put so much effort into getting Trump elected, and what does Putin want from him now?

     This really isn’t terribly difficult to discern.  Putin has made no secret of his desire to rebuild the Soviet empire.  (For a more scholarly treatment of this matter, read this.)  Western Europe knows this, as evidenced by reactions to Trump’s efforts to undermine NATO.  And the Baltic states know this; there is growing concern—see here, here, here, and here—that Putin will invade one or more of these states in the not too distant future.  Could Trump really be so stupid that he doesn’t know this?  Could he really be so stupid that he doesn’t realize what great service he has been doing for Putin of late?  The main obstacle to Putin’s aspirations is the Western alliance that is formalized in such institutions as NATO and the G-7.  Trump’s actions in the last few weeks have seriously destabilized both of these institutions, just as his tantrums at home have seriously destabilized important components of US government.  

     Collusion?  Trump is certainly doing all that he can to appease Putin and to smooth the way for rebuilding the empire.  While this alone may not be “collusion” in any legally significant sense, it is certainly questionable behavior for the US President.

     Conspiracy?  Who knows.  Mueller may uncover illicit connections between Trump and the Russians—illegal campaign activities or some sort of hold that Putin has over Trump—or he may not.  I won’t be much surprised either way.  I’m sure that Trump is as much of a perv as any other rich woman hater,  and all of our intelligence agencies (along with those of other countries) have documented Russian interference in elections.  

     In any case, I think the real answer is that it is just a clusterfuck.  Trump wants desperately to be one of the tyrants who can silence dissent and rule by fiat.  His disdain for the leaders of democracies and his slobbering and fawning over the tyrants of the world are his plea for admission to the club.  There is really no need to imagine conspiracies or blackmail.  Trump is acting the way he is because that is who he wants to be.

     Interestingly, Trump has put himself between a rock and a hard place.  It is likely that his appeasement of Russia won’t play very well with some of his base.  And it isn’t likely to play well with the leadership of the GOP, either.  He has tried to forestall a backlash by blaming Obama for Russia’s annexation of Crimea and by suggesting that Russia will behave differently now that he is at the helm.  

     As I write this, the press is full of Trump’s performance at the press conference with Putin.  Trump has some defenders in the conservative press, but even on the right there is considerable disgust.  I have been a serious observer of US politics since the Nixon campaign in 1960.  I have seen Presidents dishonor themselves in all manner of ways.  I have seen Congress lapse into dysfunction.  I have seen the people at each others’ throats over issues like abortion and the Vietnam War.  But the Trump presidency is really the biggest shitshow I have ever seen.