A Rock and a Hard Place

It looks like Trump has already gotten himself between a rock and a hard place—several hard places, actually—before he has even taken office.  All the bloviating and tweeting without any thinking has brought him up against several very hard political realities.

     The hardest for a CEO like Trump is that the President simply is not the only powerful player in the US political system.  The President cannot simply make his wishes known and expect them to be fulfilled.  Congress still wields the budget and the power to legislate, if it can find the spine to act.  Powerful members of Congress have made it clear that Trump’s “reset” with Russia is very problematic.  Senators like John McCain and Lindsey Graham are by no means as powerful as the President, but they are quite powerful enough to frustrate the President’s agenda.  And perhaps Putin’s, too

     And the emerging consensus that Russia interfered in the election in inappropriate ways to support Trump seems likely to increase resistance to any efforts Trump makes to align the US with Russian interests.  Putin is playing this very close to the chest, saying that he will wait until Trump is in office before deciding what to do about Obama’s sanctions.  But Trump may well find his hands tied.  This can’t be making Putin very happy.

     And then there is the problem of Israel and, more generally, peace in the Middle East.  This has been a millstone around the neck of every President since Carter decided it was America’s business to secure peace between Israel and its neighbors.  And the matter has only grown more complicated, exploding into all manner of sectarian conflicts.  In one respect, this is an easy call for politicians in the US.  It is political suicide in the US to take any sort of strong stand against Israel, or even to take a positive stand that isn’t quite strong enough.  It would seem that Obama made this an easy win for Trump by allowing the UN Security Council to pass a resolution critical of Israeli settlement practices.  This gave Trump the opportunity to play buddy-buddy with Netanyahu and declare his support for Israel.

     But this really can’t be making Putin happy.  Russia’s relationship with Israel under Putin is complicated.  Putin wants to be the big dog in the Middle East; this requires some kind of functional relationship with Israel.  But the last thing Putin wants is a stronger relationship between Israel and the US; this simply increases the US influence in the region.

    And we mustn’t forget Iran.  Under Putin, Russia has cultivated a substantial economic and military relationship with Iran.  But anti-Iran sentiment is widespread among Trump’s appointments and advisors; “regime change,” the modern euphemism for wars of aggression, seems to be increasingly popular.

     And what of China, the third largest market for US goods?  No doubt Putin is happy to see US-China relations deteriorate.  But a trade war with China hardly benefits American workers.

     I wonder if Putin or Trump’s other supporters are suffering buyer’s remorse yet.  And I wonder if the internal contradictions that are already emerging in the Trump administration will produce just more of the gridlock that has been the reality of US government for the past eight years.  Given the way Trump’s agenda appears to be developing, gridlock may be our only hope.