He Said that He Would Do It....

No one who pays any attention should be surprised by Trump’s announcement that the US will renege on the nuclear deal with Iran.  He said throughout his campaign that this is one of the things he would do.  He has gradually removed from his cabinet and circle of advisors all who resisted this; he now has a reliable war cabinet in place.  Elections are coming; this is not a time to let the base get restive.  So…he said that he would do it, and indeed he did.

     There is much concern amongst pundits and politicians that Trump doesn’t seem to have any particular notion of what to do next.  Even FOX News presents a rather grim picture of the likely consequences of this move.  But I think it is fairly clear what he will do:  he’ll smirk at the people trying to clean up his mess and wander off into tweet-tweet land to spew invective and bombast.  It’s what he always does.

     There is little doubt that this will have serious consequences.  The economic consequences will depend in part on how aggressively the Trump administration seeks to punish other  countries or foreign companies that ignore the sanctions.  Already, oil markets are unsteady, and Boeing is looking at a $39 billion loss.  The costs will pile up, along with the costs of tariffs.  And these costs will be absorbed largely by the working and middle classes.  The ensuing economic dislocation should allow the corporate sector to grab an even larger chunk of the country’s economy.

     The political consequences are likely to be worse.  We are shedding allies like a nervous cat sheds hair.  This move will almost certainly increase tensions in the Middle East, and we might well be drawn deeper into that madness, even as we are losing the support of our traditional allies.  We are already losing wars in several countries; adding Iran to the list doesn’t seem prudent.  And surely none of this is going to make it any easier to arrive at some useful agreement with Kim Jong-un (not that there is much likelihood of that anyway).  

     Again and again, Trump’s actions reveal that he lacks any sort of larger plan or notion about the country’s future.  Indeed, I think the notion that Trump has any concern at all for the country is quite absurd.  But his behavior does exhibit a certain style, the style of fascism.  Conflict, social disorder, war are the tools that fascists use to consolidate and legitimate their power, and Trump creates conflict at every turn.  And his is a particularly petty sort of fascism, one that depends on personal insult and self-aggrandizement.  His tweeted insults and invective are reminiscent of schoolyard taunts amongst children, and the world-view they exhibit is simple-minded, to say the least.

     But an office like the Presidency turns a petty fascist into a grand one, who needs conflict on a grand scale—war.  For, as Randolph Bourne explains, war is the health of the state; and the state is the source of the fascist’s power.  So it should come as no surprise whatsoever that Trump’s actions bring us closer and closer to another war.