Trump Agonistes

Although I am usually sensible enough to avoid making predictions about political events, I have said ever since Trump was elected that he would not serve out a full term.  I remain reasonably confident about that.  Here are some of the different ways this might play out.

     First, it is obvious to anyone who looks that Trump is old and in very poor condition, and that he takes very poor care of himself.  If what we read in the press is true, his diet is toxic even by contemporary US standards.  And golf is hardly exercise.  By all accounts, he finds the job of being President highly stressful (even though he doesn’t really do the job).  It would be no surprise at all if he got so worked up during one of his early morning twitter fits that he simply dropped dead.

     Second, Trump makes no secret of the fact that he doesn’t really like being President.  His fragile ego is terribly threatened by the flood of criticism the office attracts.  He is visibly frustrated by the fact that he cannot simply issue orders and fire people (like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan) when they don’t jump to obey.  And this problem is only going to get worse if the Democrats do well in the midterms.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he cobbled together some excuse for resigning.  A strong Democratic showing in the midterms would give him the excuse that Americans just don’t appreciate all he is doing for them.  The ongoing flood of resignations by the people he has chosen for his administration could give him the excuse of subversion from within.  An accomplished crap artist like Trump won’t have any trouble finding some sort of reason that saves face, at least in his own mind.

     Third, it is no secret that there is considerable tension between Trump and virtually all the factions of the GOP.  I originally thought that resignation was the most likely end of the Trump administration, but I am no longer quite so confident of this.  So far, Trump has been mostly a distraction that allowed the GOP to enact some of the more obnoxious elements of its agenda.  But the distraction is becoming something of a problem.  Two recent examples will serve to explain this.

     Just recently, Trump has stumbled on and off message concerning gun control and the 2nd Amendment.  The NRA is not very tolerant of this sort of thing, and that means the GOP can’t be either.  The NRA’s members, along with others who agree with the NRA’s positions, form an important part of the GOP’s base.  Potentially even more troublesome for the GOP is Trump’s insistence on imposing tariffs and starting a trade war.  The GOP’s corporate masters have made it very clear that they are not happy about this.  And pretty soon, they are likely to have a lot of company.

     So I am still optimistic that we will not have to endure an entire four years of Trump.  But my optimism is tempered by the fact that, when Trump goes, we will have to deal with Pence.  I think it is interesting that Pence has such an incredibly low media profile these days.  If I were given to conspiracy theorizing, I might think the Republicans are trying to keep him clean so that it will be easier to move him into the Presidency when the time comes.  But that would be paranoid, wouldn’t it?